Ghana’s cedi is in a record-breaking weakening cycle.
The currency hasn’t gained versus the dollar in the past 22 trading sessions, the longest streak according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1994. The cedi traded 0.3% weaker at 13.9310 by 1 p.m. in London. It’s declined 14% this year, a slump beaten only by currencies that have been devalued, including the Egyptian pound and Nigerian naira.
The slide has been fueled by a slump in cocoa earnings, with exports dropping by nearly a third to $508 million in the first two months of the year due to adverse weather, disease and fertilizer shortages.
Despite a temporary surplus in 2023, Ghana’s historical current account deficit is also resurfacing, signaling further challenges to the cedi, said Gergely Urmossy, emerging market strategist at Societe Generale.
The cedi’s forward curve calculation sees the currency breaching its record low of 14.6174 per dollar by the third quarter, ending the year at 15.98. FX forward pricing is calculated based on the spot rate and the interest rate differentials between the two currencies for the tenor of the forward.
Risks include a debt deal, still in the balance, that is being threatened by a punitive anti-LGBTQ law. An increase in demand for imported goods ahead of elections in December is also a source of pressure on the local unit.
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